Welcome to another stacked Tuesday slate on the diamond as all 30 Major League Baseball teams take the field.
Our staff of betting analysts is offering up three MLB Best Bets Today , including a consensus side on the red-hot San Diego Padres.
Cody Goggin's Padres vs. Cardinals Best Bet: San Diego Has Huge Moneyline Advantage
Tuesday, Aug. 27
7:45 p.m.ET
MLB.TV
Padres ML (-140, Bet365)
Dylan Cease has been very good this season, especially as of late.
He has a 3.43 ERA and a 3.27 xERA on the season with 193 strikeouts in 154 2/3 innings. Among qualified pitchers, Cease ranks in the 92nd percentile in strikeout rate and 92nd percentile in whiff rate.
Cease also ranks in the 67th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and 62nd percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
He also boasts elite advanced pitching model metrics (123 Stuff+, 101 Location+).
Today, he takes on a Cardinals offense that has been less than impressive this season. They rank 20th inwRC+, 20th in wOBA, 22nd in SLG, and 17th in OBP. Those numbers have held steady as the season has progressed.
The Cardinals rank 22nd in walk rate, 22nd in hard-hit rate, 27th in barrel rate, and 22nd in average exit velocity. Their best hitter this season has been Willson Contreras, who unfortunately just landed on the IL for the second time.
San Diego’s offense has been one of the better units in the National League. The Padres rank sixth in wRC+ and eighth in wOBA. They strike out at the league's lowest rate with the fifth-lowest walk rate, putting many balls into play. They are also hot as of late, ranking third in the league over the past month with a 124 wRC+.
Miles Mikolas is not the type of pitcher to scare me away from thePadres in this matchup. He has a 5.19 ERA and 4.37 ERA, ranking in the ninth percentile in strikeout rate. Mikolas does avoid allowing walks, but his batted-ball metrics have also all been below average this season.
San Diego has a huge advantage in starting pitching and offense in this matchup. St. Louis has been eliminated from playoff contention, and it seems like they have given up on the year. The Padres should have longer odds in this game than -140, and I would bet them up to -155 on themoneyline.
Pick: Padres ML (-140)
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Tony Sartori's Padres vs. Cardinals Best Bet: The Easy Run-Line Prediction
Tuesday, Aug. 27
7:45 p.m.ET
MLB.TV
Padres -1.5 (+125, Bet365)
The shortness of this line genuinely makes no sense to me. San Diego is the superior team in every facet of this matchup.
The starting pitchers feature Dylan Cease for the Padres and Miles Mikolas for St. Louis. Cease paces Mikolas in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, San Diego's bullpen outranks the Cardinals in FIPand xFIP.
That leaves the hitting, another advantage for the Padres as they surpass St. Louis in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs andstolen bases.
The only "advantage" that the Cardinals could possess is home-field. With that said, San Diego's road win percentage is higher than St. Louis' home win percentage.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (+125)
Justin Perri's Mets vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: Our Best Over/Under Pick
Tuesday, Aug. 27
9:40 p.m.ET
MLB.TV
Over 8.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Nobody scores more runs at home than the ArizonaDiamondbacks.
Nobody scores more runs than Arizona, no matter where they are. At 5.35 Runs Per Game, the Diamondbacks are ahead of even theNew YorkYankees (5.11). The Metshave also done well on the road this season and, overall, are one of the most complete lineups in the game, powered by Fransisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, and the power bat of JD Martinez.
To me, the lineups alone give an edge on the Over, but there's also the pitching and the environmental factor.
Let's start with the latter, it is very easy to hit the ball far in the dry, arid climate down in the desert. That might be why the Diamondbacks are 38-24-1 O/U on totalswhen playing at home. On Tuesday, the wind will be blowing out, and the temperatures are expected to reach 100 degrees, which should make for some plus-hitting conditions and positive visual memory scenarios.
This holds especially true for the Mets hitters, who should be able to locate the fastball better than they did in their last series against San Diego, where there can be added break due to environmental factors. Arizona is the opposite, flatter pitches, thinner air… what more do you need?
I also need a good pitching matchup to bet an over, and that's what Sean Manaea and Eduardo Rodriguez bring to this wager.
Manaea has been very good this season, likely one of the most underrated signings of the season, but theres still something left to be desired. None of his pitches are elite, and his top starts recently have been on the heels of his fastball, which won't have the same break tonight.
The Diamondbacks are trotting out Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been solid in his limited starts (he spent most of the year on the IL) but has only faced the Marlins,Rockies andGuardians, and now has to go against an offense that is clicking in the desert. Plus, neither of these bullpens are league-leading by any means.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
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